fiscaldominance.us Request access

US fiscal dominance risk

A plain-English read on whether public debt costs, deficits, market functioning, and inflation expectations are starting to limit policy choices.

Risk score 55/100
Current state Elevated Watch conditions, not a regime call.
Low0-33 Elevated34-66 High67-100

Diagnostic pillars

Four public-data signals that feed the risk score.

How scoring works

Live macro signals

The rule-based risk index reads Elevated at 55 / 100. Observable fiscal pressure is driven primarily by interest burden and deficit persistence; Treasury market-functioning and credibility signals are treated as constraint-evidence proxies, not direct proof of a fiscal-dominance regime.

Checking sources...
Signal Latest 1Y ago 10Y range 10Y trend

Range bars and sparklines use the selected window. The blue marker shows the latest reading.

Interactive signal charts

Every public-data signal behind the current risk reading.

View API and data access

Fiscal Regime Map

Fiscal pressure versus constraint-evidence proxies

Method
Pressure, weak constraint evidence
High pressure / low constraint
Dominance risk
High pressure / high constraint
Benign
Low pressure / low constraint
Constrained, low fiscal pressure
Low pressure / high constraint
Constraint evidence Fiscal pressure Current
Elevated

Interpretation

Snapshot: 2026-07-13

The rule-based risk index reads Elevated at 55 / 100. Observable fiscal pressure is driven primarily by interest burden and deficit persistence; Treasury market-functioning and credibility signals are treated as constraint-evidence proxies, not direct proof of a fiscal-dominance regime.

What would change the call ->